Adaptation of transboundary water management in the Amudarya basin to possible climate change …

The overall goal of the work is to increase the capacity of the Amudarya basin countries to adapt transboundary watercourse water management in the face of climate change and other uncertainties.

A comprehensive study of water management is a specific goal. long-term transboundary rivers of the Amu Darya basin in the context of climate and other changes in relation to the national New plans for the development of irrigated agriculture and hydropower.

Key objectives:

  • Assessing possible changes in the hydrological regime and future water consumption norms caused by climate change;
  • Study multi-year flow control scenarios with large reservoirs from hydroelectric stations to the hydrology of rivers and water supply to irrigated land and aquatic ecosystems of the basin;
  • Assessment of the required water use of crops located on the irrigated lands of the basin countries under the conditions of climate change and regi Streaming river flows based on national plans for agricultural and hydropower development, taking into account the introduction of innovations and water-saving technologies;
  • Development of options for linking national priorities and water requirements at the basin level, including on the basis of legal analysis, with an emphasis on global water conventions – The 1997 UN Convention and the 1992 UNECE Convention.

Scientific benefits of the project:

  • Using a model tool that allows assessing the effects of climate in conjunction with various Scenarios of water management, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental and energy development basseynaPodhody countries to reduce the total cost of water in irrigated agriculture;
  • These approaches in the course of the project will be enriched with the best practices of the United States (in particular, WaterSmart, etc.);
  • Considering the positive effects of climate change in the basin. Thus, climate change and temperature increases shorten the growing season of agricultural crops, which, when modeled, will reduce the amount of water required.

Main outputs: a full range of scenarios and options for managing the water resources of the transboundary basin in the form of assessments and recommendations for various stakeholders, a database methodological materials, regional seminar for key stakeholders, training materials, articles, website.

Deadlines: November 1, 2015 – October 31, 2017. Continued St project 24 months.

The project will be implemented in four stages:

  1. Preparatory period (3 months)
  2. Research (9 months)
  3. Carrying out a numerical experiment (7 months)
  4. Disseminating the project results (5 months)

Stage 1. Preparation and planning

Main activities:

  • Research on water management problems in the Amudarya basin and building a logical Basin water management models;
  • Development of research methodology and scenario assessment; construction of a design scheme for possible combinations of scenarios,
  • Collection and analysis of source information and data, including: data on land and water resources, data on HPS operation modes, etc., assessment of climate scenarios and preparation of climate data, in tabular and GIS formats.

Results of the preparatory stages, as well as possible difficulties in the implementation of the project will be discussed during a working meeting in Tashkent. Dialogue with partners from the USA and Turkmenistan can be carried out via the Internet. The results of the preparatory period will be presented in the form of an information report.

Stage 2. Research

Main activities:

  • Adaptation of models (ASBmm, etc.) to the characteristics of the Amudarya river basin, mainly in terms of balancing the water balance components, including return flow and water loss,
  • Program analysis -economic development of the countries (agricultural and energy directions) and the identification of achievements on the path of sustainable development – improving food and energy security, accelerating the economic growth and protection of ecosystems;
  • Study of the required water consumption of crops located on the irrigated lands of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Amu Darya in the context of climate change, in accordance with the scenarios of agricultural development and distribution of crops;
  • Simulation of the flow of rivers in the basin, taking into account the influence of climate, Study of alternative scenarios for flow regulation by cascades of reservoirs and hydropower plants,
  • Determination of the required volumes of water supply to Afghanistan from the Am River basin ,
  • Determination of the required volumes of water supply to the system of lakes in the Amudarya delta and the Aral Sea,
  • Legal and institutional analysis of transboundary water management in the Amudarya basin (regulation of river flow by reservoirs from hydroelectric power plants and distribution of water resources between countries in the interests of users of the upper, middle and lower reaches ), with an emphasis on the possible benefits of two global water conventions – the Convention